Keeping this handicap rather simple in saying that we don’t really know what we get out of Novak Djokovic these days. The last time he made it out of the quarterfinals in Monte Carlo was when he won the whole thing in 2015. Since then, the goat is an underwhelming (for his standards) 8-7 in the Principality of Monaco, losing in the round of 16 or earlier 5 out of 7 times. One of these losses came last year against today’s opponent Lorenzo Musetti. The Italian, much like Stefanos Tsitsipas, might stay a slow-courter for the entirety of his career, one of the main reasons being the one-handed backhand which is a liability on quicker courts, but can be a splendid weapon, especially on clay. Not only did Musetti beat Djokovic in Monte Carlo last year, he also got through Taylor Fritz and Arthur Fils relatively easily this week. Djokovic also looked solid in his win over Roman Safiullin, but I’m not reading too much into that given the Russian’s struggles on clay. This matchup with Musetti will be a first real test for Djokovic on the red dirt and I just see more uncertainties on the Serb’s side compared to last year when the two were priced in the same range. Djokovic did look a little slower in Indian Wells when he needed three sets to beat Aleks Vukic before losing to Musetti’s fellow countryman Luca Nardi. Don’t lynch me when the Djoker wins in straights, but I just see a wider range of outcomes when it comes to his matches nowadays.
Suggested Bet
0.5u on Lorenzo Musetti +1.5 sets at 2.25 (+125) with Pinnacle
0.75u on Lorenzo Musetti +4.5 games at 2.00 (+100) with bet365
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.