Jake’s Marrakech Preview: Evans vs. Baena

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Out-of-form Brit Dan Evans will look to topple the defending champion at Marrakech tonight as Roberto Carballes Baena looks to make it three-for-three against the 33-year-old.

The pair played at this venue last season, with the Spaniard winning 2-6, 6-4, 6-2, before he took him out again in a deciding set, 7-6, 5-7, 6-4.

Although the better player ultimately prevailed in each of these contests, the scorelines would indicate they could have gone either way, as would the pre-off starting prices in each contest.

Evans was $2 at Marrakech and $2.20 in Barcelona, and now comes into this contest $2.50.

I will admit I respect Baena’s ability at this venue and his overall fighting power, but he was given a cheap pass into this round and the Brit shapes as a much tougher test.

The main-draw clay stats between the two are almost identical, with recent form and H2H dominance likely driving the Spaniard’s price.

And yes, I do agree he should be favourite but I have this closer to 1.8-2.2 and I consider the 2.50 to be excessive.

Evans looks to be past him prime, and I don’t expect him to pop up and win anymore tournaments on the main draw, but if there was ever a chance for him to make some noise, it’s this week.

He has the IQ and the variation to take this one to a decider again, and at a 2.5 quota, it’s a side I’m happy to be on.

Suggested Bets:

0.5 units Evans +3.5 @ $1.76 with SportsBet

0.5 units Evans to WIN @ $2.55 with SportsBet

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.