It’s time for everyone’s favorite “clay” tournament of the year! We’re in Charleston, USA for a WTA 500 event on green “clay” this week. I say “clay” because this is not the red dirt we see in Roland Garros, Rome, or most other clay events. Charleston features a unique setup of hard courts that have a green, ground stone material on top. These courts are almost exclusively featured in the Southeastern United States and play more like hard courts than the red clay courts we’ve come to know. The green, ground stone material allows players to slide similar to clay courts, but the layer is not heavy enough to create the slow conditions we see with red clay. If that wasn’t enough uniqueness for this event, Charleston will NOT feature Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka, or Coco Gauff. Those four women have won or played in the final of 6 of the 9 WTA 500 or better events this year. That means this event is wide open for everyone else and especially those players who can take advantage of surface. We are looking for players who are athletic enough to slide on clay, but also have the power to take advantage of the relatively quick conditions. There are three women who met those requirements and had places in the draw I found advantageous.
Ekaterina Alexandrova is in the 1st quarter of this event and in great form after making the semifinals in Miami. She made the quarterfinals in Charleston in 2022 and the semifinals in 2023 losing both times to Belinda Bencic. Luckily Bencic is not in the draw. Alexandrova is playing great tennis, has had past success here, and has the kind of game that should do well. At 21.00(+2000) or better, she’s a good value bet to win this event.
Madison Keys won this event in 2015 and 2019 and made the quarterfinals in 2023. She is 20-8 in her career on these courts and 11-3 since 2018. Keys hits the ball as hard as anyone on tour and has had success on clay. She will likely have to beat Emma Navarro and Daria Kasatkina to win her quarter which is no easy task, but Keys is equipped to beat either player. She has more power than both and those matches will be on her racket. Her price is 26.00(+2500) which is too high and good value.
This one is a bit more of a stretch, but Leylah Fernandez at 34.00(+3300) is too big of a number. The Canadian has no history of success in Charleston, but similar to the last two women moves well and has the power to hit winners on these courts. The bottom half of this draw is a mess and there’s a good chance we see a surprise name make the final. Fernandez is in the 4thquarter which includes Ons Jabeur, Paula Badosa, and Danielle Collins. Two of those women seem to be washed and the other just won the title in Miami and at best, will be very fatigued for this week. Elina Svitolina is also in the 4thquarter, but is just 2-2 on these courts and not in very good form. The winner of the bottom quarter gets the privilege of playing the winner of the 3rdquarter which will just be depressing if Maria Sakkari reverts back to her pre-Indian Wells form. Put all that together and I have Fernandez at better than 21.00(+2000) which makes 34.00(+3300 a bet)
Suggested Bet
0.5U – Ekaterina Alexandrova to win WTA Charleston 21.00(+2000) or better
0.5U – Madison Keys to win WTA Charleston 26.00(+2500) or better
0.5U – Leylah Fernandez to win WTA Charleston 34.00(+3300) or better
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.