Hey, guys.
Sinner’s win this morning over Dimitrov allowed us to re-eclipse the +4% mark, although it’s not a figure I’m satisfied with.
Given we have the luxury of betting into niche market types, the ultimate goal would be much closer to 10%.
Let’s see if we can bet up, and get closer to that number this week.
ATP HOUSTON:
We take a trip to the unique red courts in Texas as Houston makes up one of three ATP 250 tournaments on the dirt this week.
Defending champion Frances Tiafoe is the third set, whereas Ben Shelton and Francisco Cerundolo occupy seeds one and two, respectively.
However, I’ve got my eye more firmly fixed on Tomas Martin Etcheverry as last year’s runner-up has what I would consider a very favourable section, despite Bet365 opening him at an odds-against quota.
As a seeded player at the 250 level, you only need to win two matches to reach the semi-finals, making the mathematics behind making your own prices fairly simple.
What the odds makers tend to do is underestimate how straight forward it can be for these players to find themselves in a semi final, and I often find myself betting short but valuable numbers on these players.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry sustained a hamstring injury during the golden swing, but had a high quality hit out with a fairly in-form Andy Murray at Miami, losing in two close sets.
That match shapes as the perfect warm-up in the lead up to this contest where the Argentine played very well last season.
In this tournament, he’ll only need to knock off Galan/Paire, then Michelsen/Varillas.
I don’t say ‘only’ lightly in the tennis betting world, and a potential semi-final against Michelsen would not be straight forward, as these US clay courts are not similar to the ones you see in South America or even Europe, but based on TME’s ceiling, and my expected starting prices for his contests, I’ve got this strong value.
Suggested Bet:
2 units Tomas Martin Etcheverry to WIN quarter 2 @ $2.40 with Bet365.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.