I don’t think Andy Murray is lighting the world on fire in 2024, but I’m quite sure the level he’s been presenting is good enough to trouble a fatigued Matteo Berrettini.
The Italian played a torrid schedule in the final couple of days at Phoenix, and looked to tip everything out in a two-sets loss to Nuno Borges in the finale.
While I was happy to buy into Berrettini at stages throughout that tournament (at plus money) I don’t think he should be sub $1.90 against a fresh at seemingly healthy Andy Murray.
The Italian leads the H2H 3-2, but this is all about the spot and the advantage I believe Murray will have in the legs.
The Brit hasn’t played since an early Indian Wells loss to Andrey Rublev, gets to return to action at a tournament he’s won twice and has completely dominated at stages.
He’s 29-11 lifetime at Miami, whereas Berrettini has shockingly never won at this venue.
I know Berrettini has more upside at this time of his career, but fatigue should play a huge role in the pricing of matches and I don’t know how much juice the younger player will have in his legs for this one.
Suggested Bet:
0.75 units Andy Murray to WIN @ $2.10 with Bet365
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.