I could be missing something with this price, and that wouldn’t be the first time, but I’m finding it hard to come to terms with the odds on Alexander Shevchenko at Miami on Thursday.
Daniel Elahi Galan – at the best of times – is an extremely mediocre main draw hard court player with upside that almost never shows itself.
At ATP level on hard, the Colombian is 3-9 over the last 52 weeks with a combined hold-break percentage of 85.3 – this awful.
His last tour-level match was against Taro Daniel, and after a competitive first set that he lost 4-6, was rolled in the final stanza 1-6. He just doesn’t seem to have a feel for things right now. He started this match around $3.
The problem for Galan is that Indian Wells should have in theory been one of his better chances to accrue winning results as the slow, high-bouncing hard court would somewhat emulate the clay conditions in which he’s had almost all of his career success.
Galan’s had good results here in the past, most notable knocking off Alex De Minaur in 2021 as a massive underdog.
But, the acceleration of the court in 2024 won’t work in his favour, and while Shevchenko isn’t known as a fast-court specialist, he will be much happier on top of a quicker court.
The Kazakh representative has been extremely active on the hard courts this season, showing us he’s probably going to be a permanent fixture on the main draw for years to come.
The season hasn’t been perfect, but he’s played 17 top flight matches, accruing wins over Rune, Zhang, Koepfer and Bonzi, on his way to an 8-9 record. All of these players would be warm favourites against Galan.
The youngster looked off last time out against Cerundolo, and ended up retiring against the Argentine which is probably why we’re getting $1.50 in this meeting and not the sub $1.40 quota I think it should be.
Having watched that match, it looked like Shevchenko simply didn’t want to be there and somewhat gave up rather than succumbed to an injury.
He’ll get his chance to bring his season record to .500 tomorrow and looks to have the tools to make fairly light work of an inferior opponent.
Suggested Bet:
1 unit Shevchenko -2.5 @ $1.84 with BetKings
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.