It makes me feel quite uneasy that I’ve ended up with a host of favourites in the opening round of Miami, but unfortunately I can’t control which prices I disagree with, and this time around I’m betting into the shorts.
Jack Draper has shown flashes of brilliance in 2024 but ultimately the last month has been dictated by the Brit’s lack of fitness/staying power within matches as he lost at Los Cabos against Kokkinakis after going up a set, before losing to O’Connell at Indian Wells in the same fashion with a similar SP.
There’s obviously some underlying physical issues for the youngster and I’d wager his camp is doing everything it can to set those problems aside for a sizeable tournament in Florida this week.
The match he’ll play against Taro Daniel looks to be another straight forward contest, and even though these types of meetings for Draper have been tricky lately, I actually like him to dominate Daniel on Thursday.
You see, when Draper wins matches in 2024, he wins them in dominant fashion.
I mentioned the difficult showing against O’Connell and Kokkinakis, but both of these matches were on surfaces substantially slower than the one at Miami, which is going to play its role towards the latter stages of those contests.
Tops of 26 degrees should be bearable for the Brit on Thursday, as well as the quick conditions I spoke about.
People have piled onto Draper quite a bit, but he’s covered a -4.5 spread in six of eight matches this season, including an eight-game margin against Tommy Paul, an eight-game margin against Kecmanovic, and a nine-game margin against Nishioka.
When he wins, he tends to win well.
I haven’t touch much on Taro Daniel and the reality is, since making the final at Auckland back in January, the Japanese player is an abysmal 2-6 with a combined hold-break percentage of 84.
Daniel is better than this, and I do expect things to turn at some point, but when your best win in two months is a victory of Daniel Galan at Indian Wells, you’re traveling pretty badly.
Suggested Bet:
0.75 units Jack Draper -4.5 @ $1.83 with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.