I like Tommy Paul as much as the next guy but I struggle to see how he keeps up with Daniil Medvedev in Saturday’s Indian Wells semi-finals match.
When you talk about what the American does well, it’s his footwork, movement and overall defensive abilities.
He is able to out hustle and outlast inferior opponents and he is certainly worthy of the top 20 ranking he’s earned.
He’s generated some massive wins in his time, but how exactly is he going to outwork one of the most resilient baseline players in the world?
Medvedev’s wingspan and ability to put the ball back in play is other worldly, and he can generate pace much more effectively than Paul.
Not only does he hit a heavier ball, his serve is superior and he will earn a lot more free points than Paul who doesn’t have the levers to pound down aces and un-returnable serves like the Russian can.
Even though the hold break data is somewhat close, I tend to take a stance against players who are simply at a stalemate when it comes to way they can win.
Grueling baseline rallies? Medvedev.
Ability to hit winners/generate power? Medvedev.
Service speed? Medvedev.
Big-time match experience? Medvedev.
I think Paul could stick around on the back of sheer fitness and heart in the opening exchanges, but it’s going to get harder and harder.
If the Russian can drag you into deep water, it becomes a nightmare, and I’m quite sure Paul doesn’t have the arsenal to combat this in any way.
Suggested Bet:
1.5 units Medvedev -3.5 games @ $1.83 with Bet365. Pivot to -4.0 @ $2.03 with Pinnacle if you can’t get this.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.