I’ll go ahead and say the 3.20 (+220) odds we’re getting on Alexander Zverev today is a better price than the 4.50 (+350) he was priced against Carlos Alcaraz at the Australian Open in January. A lot has happened since, primarily a frightening ankle roll by Alcaraz that had him retire from the Golden swing. Now he seems to be back, but I’m unsure whether he already trusts his ankle again 100% – which he has to in a high-level match like today’s.
Even before his injury, Alcaraz disappointingly lost to Nicolas Jarry in Buenos Aires. Zverev’s February can be described by the same word as he dropped out as a title favorite in both Los Cabos and Acapulco. Away from Mexico, the German is playing better tennis again. So does Alcaraz for sure, but I’m not having him a >70% favorite in these circumstances. Having won their two previous matchups – the Australian Open quarterfinal still being reminiscent – Zverev should be well-equipped for another fight with the Spanish prodigy.
Suggested Bet
0.5u on Alexander Zverev ML at 3.20 (+220) with bet365
0.75u on Over 22.5 games at 1.99 (-101) with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.