One of the toughest parts of handicapping is deciding which type of bet you want to make. Do you want to play the underdog +1.5 sets, +4.5 games, or the total over 20.5? Every long term tennis better can remember every time they bet +4.5 games instead of +1.5 sets and lost their best in a 6-7, 6-2, 6-2 match or lost over 20.5 instead of +4.5 games in a 4-6, 4-6 match. One of these situations presents themselves in round 2 of the WTA 1000 event in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Jelena Ostapenko faces Lulu Sun and it looks like to me like a match where Ostapenko crushes an inferior opponent. Sun is ranked 202 and has played just 2 matches against a top 50 player. This will be her first match against a top 20 opponent. This is the kind of opponent Ostapenko generally beats comfortably. The spread for the match is 6 games and the total is 19 games. So do we lay the 6 games or bet the total under 19 games? I’m going to choose to bet under the total of 19 games. I think wagering on Ostapenko -6 games at 1.91(-110) or better is a perfectly fine bet, but I prefer under 19 total games 1.91(-110). Ostapenko generally wins these types of matches in two dominant sets or missteps early and raises her level in sets two and three. In those three setters, she rarely covers spreads this big. Under 19 gives us a push if either player wins 6-4, 6-3 where as -6 games is a loss. Let’s go under in Dubai.
Suggested Bet
1U – Ostapenko/Sun Under 19 Games at $1.91/-110
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.