The WTA is finishing it’s time in the Middle East with a 1000 level tournament in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. We’re in the second round where Aryna Sabalenka will player her first match since winning the Australian Open and will face Donna Vekic. A big part of betting is looking at how the market is adjusting lines match to match and I think the pricing in this match is indicative of too large of an adjustment up for Aryna Sabalenka. Sabalenka was most recently this big of a favorite against Lesia Tsurenko in the middle of a hot run at this year’s Australian Open. This is a much more difficult spot for her after the long break and a much better opponent in Vekic. Sabalenka is capable of beating any player, and by a lot of games, on any day, but she still has her down matches. Vekic lost consecutive matches in Linz and Doha, but those were close matches and I don’t rate those losses as badly as it appears the books do. I’m going to back Croation to beat Sabalenka at a small stake and bet her +1.5 sets a small stake as well. If Vekic can win a set, we make some money and we do even better if she can take advantage of a good spot to beat Sabalenka. The game spread of +6 isn’t a bad bet either, but I think there’s more value in the longer odds of the moneyline and the set spread. If Sabalenka is at her best, she can cover 6 games in a 2 set victory.
Suggested Bet
0.5U – Vekic +1.5 Sets 3.25(+225) vs Aryna Sabalenka
0.5U – Vekic ML 8.00(+700) vs Aryna Sabalenka
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.