Most people who read this article will be surprised by the side I bet into, as I’ve always made a habit of going against players coming off finals/deep runs.
But, in the case of this opening-round contest at Cordoba, I’ll be siding with the player who’s had the much busier schedule recently.
After a fairly tumultuous couple of months, Argentine Federico Coria will look to re-establish himself as a main-draw clay court threat as he welcomes Daniel Altmaier to South America.
Coria, 31, is coming off a loss to Ugo Carabelli in the Piracicaba Challenger, a tournament where he looked to be back to his bruising clay-court ways.
The Argentine is a true clay court specialist, and someone who has little to no feel for other surfaces.
He has an 8-5 record at this tournament and was a set away from lifting the trophy last year, falling short to Sebastian Baez in a competitive finale.
The thing that makes this competition different from other South American clay events is the conditions:
The ball bounces high, and the 389-metre altitude sees the ball travel a lot quicker than it normally would.
Players like Diego Schwartzman and Francisco Cerundolo – two of the more seasoned clay courters on tour – have expressed frustration towards the competition due to sheer trouble they’ve had acclimatizing.
This means someone like Coria, who has a winning record here and a recent run to the finals, should be at an advantage.
In the last 52 weeks, Coria has played 58 matches on clay courts and made four finals. He breaks at 37% and when healthy, is a tough out for anyone.
He has wins over Jaime Munar, Sebastian Baez, Francisco Cerundolo, and Marco Cecchinato, – all seasoned and competitive guys.
He played the entire fourth quarter of last year in South America, and outside a brief trip to Melbourne, has been stationed here all season.
You can’t say the same about Altmaier’s form lines.
The 25-year-old German is a great clay court player, but hasn’t played a competitive match on the dirt since September 16, a Davis Cup hit out against Fatic.
And before that, it was Kitzbuhel in July, a run to the quarter-finals at Hamburg before that – both competitions are in Europe and both play substantially differently to Cordoba.
Altmaier is also coming off a troubling Aussie/New Zealand swing as he was forced to retire against Arthur Fils at Auckland with an abdominal injury, although he looked fine in a close loss to Khachanov.
While Altmaier has the more polished game, and the higher ceiling on this surface, I don’t think it will be easy to find a rhythm early against someone as experienced and active as Coria.
I wouldn’t be shocked if the German negotiated his way to a victory, but at the current quota, I’m happy to make him cover a game handicap.
Suggested Bet:
0.75 units Federico Coria to WIN @ $2.50 with Bet365, 0.75 units Federico Coria +3.0 games @ $1.80 with Pinnacle.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.
Jake’s Cordoba Preview: Coria vs. Altmaier
