Jake’s Montpellier Preview: Zapata vs. Lestienne

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Totally aware that Bernabe Zapata Miralles’s hard-court data is atrocious, but I’m not sure Contstant Lestienne is worthy of a price tag like this.

While the Frenchman has put together a nice collection of wins on the Challenger circuit, you can’t deny his underwhelming main-draw record on this surface.

Lestienne is 1-11 over the last 52 weeks on the main draw, winning just one match in the top grade, a straight sets win over Calvin Hemery at Metz last November.

He is however, 22-7 on the Challenger circuit, lifting titles at Alicante, Saint-Tropez and Palo Alto – this doesn’t happen if you’re not talented.

In the case of Zapata, there’s no Challenger level data to draw from because with a ranking of 80 – achieved with some sound results on clay courts – he simply hasn’t played enough tennis at this level.

With that being said, he won 23 matches at this level between 2019 and 2021, making a final at Quimper (indoor hard, France), losing to Nakashima on the last day.

The Spaniard is not an overly talented quick court player, and despite his long levers, lacks any real knock out blow, but I still think he’s a puncher’s chance at the price, here.

Lestienne doesn’t have a great history with injuries, and the surface at Montpellier is known for being slow. It is certainly one of the slower indoor hard courts on the tour, rivaled by venues like Rotterdam and Astana.

I make Zapata about $3.50, so I don’t have supreme confidence in him getting the job done, but I feel good about the price.

Suggested Bet:

0.5 units Bernabe Zapata Miralles to WIN @ $4.40 with SportsBet
0.75 units Bernabe Zapata Miralles +5.0 @ $1.81 with Pinnacle

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.