Jake’s Punta Del Este Preview: Carabelli vs. Navone

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There can often be some hidden gems on the Challenger tour during the second week of grand slams, so here we are.

Red hot Mario Navone is set to take on Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the first round of Punta Del Este, located on the southeastern coast of Uruguay.

Both Argentinians enter this match with stout resumes at this level, but the 22-year-old Navone has enjoyed a run of success in recent times, finishing second in the final at Buenos Aires (Facundo Bagnis).

The duo played twice in 2022 as they split each meeting, but Navone has improved tenfold since then and comes into this contest with much more market respect.

The form lines for Navone are superior. He’s won 42 matches at the Challenger level on clay courts in the last 52 weeks and boasts a slightly better hold-break clip.

But, this one isn’t about extended form lines or overall career trajectory, it’s about perceived physical condition and the exertion it takes to back up from a finale in one country, then play at your peak level in another country just 72 hours later.

Carabelli is yet to play on a clay court in 2024, but it’s not as if someone from Argentina is going to need an extended period of time to acclimatise, and he was more than serviceable in a three-sets loss to the very capable Jesper De Jong at Australian Open qualifying.

Frankly, this form point alone is stronger than anything Navone has come from, and it’s a lot easier to win tournaments on the dirt while a grand slam is going on than it is in the middle of the golden swing.

I won’t take too much away from what Navone has done recently, and throughout last season, but I think the elder Argentine might have a little more in the legs.

Suggested Bet:
0.75 units Camilo Ugo Carabelli to WIN @ $2 with SportsBet.

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.