There’s no denying the hype around Italy’s Jannik Sinner as we head into the Australian Open quarterfinals.
The 22-year-old looks one of the main threats to take out Melbourne’s grand slam as the start of his 2024 season looks just as impressive as the second-half of last year.
In 2023, Sinner produced a 64-15 record across all surfaces which is truly stunning, figures that are only put up by the world’s best and most active players: Djokovic, Nadal, Medvedev and others.
He has some of the most damaging groundstrokes in the world and when he is hitting the ball with confidence, can be border-line unplayable.
There’s always a lot of talk about the remarkable backhand, but the forehand – when firing – is almost as potent.
All in all, there’s not a great deal standing in the way of Sinner and his maiden grand slam, from a talent standpoint.
If you look to the opposite side of the net tonight, we have Russia’s Andrey Rublev as the 26-year-old has been a model of consistency on the tour for the last five seasons.
Like Sinner, Rublev is a ruthless hitter of the ball, although his game lacks variation and he doesn’t have much to turn to if he’s being out-gunned from the back of the court.
It’s precisely this that’s prevented Rublev from making much noise on the grand slam stage, although he’s certainly good enough to be regularly making quarterfinals on all surfaces.
Rublev’s forehand is probably the most terrifying on the tour and he can produce winners off that wing from peculiar angles/positions – it’s a cracking stroke.
There’s not a whole lot of mystery over how this match will unfold. Both players want to stand tall and whack the cover off the ball.
While mainstream media and novice tennis pundits like to talk about who will win out of player A and player B, as a punter, I’m only ever looking at the odds. We bet numbers not players.
Even though I’ve gone in depth speaking about the upside of Sinner and the near-flawless game style, the $1.20 quota this evening is simply too short, and here’s why.
Let’s start with Rublev form in 2023. Channel Nine won’t tell you this, but Rublev has kicked off the season with eight wins in-a-row, lifting a title at Hong Kong with wins over Arthur Fils, the red hot Juncheng Shang and then Emiil Ruusuvouri in the final (6-4, 6-4).
After a slow start against Thiago Seyboth Wild at the Aussie Open, he was remarkable against Seb Korda (with a $1.36 SP), and he broke down De Minaur last time out, winning 3 and 0 in the last two sets.
If Rublev lost that match to De Minaur, he would have held a new record for most grand slam round of 16 losses, so the psychological barrier he had to overcome to defeat the Australian and the crowd can’t be overstated.
So, why when I look at Pinnacle am I seeing $4.51 about the Russian? I really don’t know.
The sheer brilliance of Sinner’s 2023 was immense, and if you look at the significance of some of the wins, the price makes a little more sense.
At the World Tour Finals alone, Sinner knocked off Djokovic, Sinner, Medvedev and Rune… incredible.
At Vienna, a title he won, he again defeated Medvedev, as well as Rublev (7-5, 7-6), Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, Lorenzo Sonego – no joke.
But again, I want to be reverting back to Rublev’s recent accomplished and he won 60 games last season as well, lifting titles at Monte Carlo and Bastad.
But if you’ve read this much, I want to speak about the most important factor heading into this match – from a betting perspective… the SP profile.
Or, in Layman’s terms, the odds history in mutual meetings between these two.
Sinner leads the head-to-head 4-2, and here are the prices he’s started in all contests.
Vienna, 2020 – $2.60.
Barcelona, 2021 – $1.70
Monte Carlo, 2022 – $1.90.
French Open 2022 – $2.05.
Miami Masters 2023 – $1.57.
Vienna 2023 – $1.55.
I will mention that the two times Rublev has moved past Sinner, the Italian has retired, but this must be factored into the market.
Sinner retired four times in 2023, Rublev has retired once in his entire career. The warmer conditions and the physical requirements of best-of-five tennis hasn’t been adequately factored into the market, in my opinion.
More of that not, Sinner’s losses or downswings are the direct result of some sort of physical ailment or injury.
If you watch his matches week in, week out, the body language can be poor, and the movement can be massively impacted by whatever physical issues he’s carry.
It’s obvious Sinner has been healthy over the last 6 months or so, but it could be a manner of time before he tweaks something or knocks up in some capacity, that likely won’t happen to Rublev.
So, the question we must ask heading into this match with the prices in mind is this:
Has enough unfolded since their last meeting for Sinner’s starting price to reduce this much? Why has he gone from $1.55 at Vienna to $1.20 on a grand slam stage?
Since the start of 2022, Sinner is 31-8 in best-of-five sets tennis, Rublev is 28-7.
Sinner’s combined hold break number is 117, Rublev’s is 111 – do these numbers warrant the $1.20 price is keep referring back to?
My answer is no. They don’t.
One thing I want to outline is that I respect the market, and it is of course possible Sinner comes out here and gets Rublev off the court quickly.
My model has Sinner winning this contest about 70% of the time, meaning he’s a true $1.43 shot, but sub $1.20 is silly.
Rublev is a bulldog. He has world class fitness, unreal credentials on hard courts, and might feel like he’s playing with house money after escaping a match against De Minaur in the fashion he did.
He will back himself to go mano y mano with Sinner, and he will believe if things get desperate and physically, he can outlast the Italian, like he’s done twice before.
I am almost certain Sinner will win a grand slam before his career is all said and done, but if he keeps going around at these prices against this type of opposition, I’ll probably be against him.
Suggested Bet:
0.5 units Andrey Rublev to WIN @ $4.5 with BetKings.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.