17-year-old Pavle Marinkov is one of the wild card recipients in this year’s Australian Open qualifying draw. The Aussie got dismantled by Matteo Gigante in the second round of qualifying for the Canberra Challenger last week, but before that, he was able to beat world #118 Luca Nardi 6-4, 6-1. Today, Marinkov is taking on a third Italian in a row in Riccardo Bonadio. The 30-year-old has only played 17 matches on (outdoor) hard courts in the last three years and he’s avoiding indoor hard and grass courts (apart from Wimbledon qualies) altogether.
In these quick conditions in Australia, Bonadio’s one-handed backhand can be exploited and Marinkov is not shy of attacking the net to finish points off. In his last match, Bonadio lost 3-6, 3-6 against Francisco Rocha, who’s barely inside the top 1000, in quicker conditions and it’s safe to say that the Italian doesn’t enjoy this early part of the season.
I’m giving Marinkov at least a 33% chance of winning, which means a 5% edge on the current market price. Maybe he won’t be clutch enough to get over the line, but the current junior #21 has the tools to bother Bonadio on hard courts.
Suggested Bets:
0.5u on Pavle Marinkov ML at 3.50 (+250) with bet365
0.75u on Pavle Marinkov +1.5 sets at 2.05 (+105) with Pinnacle
0.75u on Pavle Marinkov +3.5 games at 2.09 (+109) with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.