The uncertainty of a player coming back from injury might actually open up some value on Denis Shapovalov here. I’ve never been a fan of backing the Canadian, who I thought was one of the players that’s chronically overvalued. If his game clicks, it’s potent and beautiful to watch, however, his error susceptibility always made him a good lay when favorite.
In his first match back since the 2023 grass season, Shapovalov is starting as a $2.20 underdog to Sebastian Ofner. The Austrian is playing some really good tennis right now as he reached the semifinal in Hong Kong last week. That being said, he was playing Thursday, Friday and Saturday, featuring two three-setters as well. Flights from Hong Kong to Auckland are 11+ hours, so there are some doubts about whether Ofner can just carry that form onto this week. Trusting his game, he will also fancy his chances to win a few rounds at the Australian Open, so he might not go all-out the week before.
All told, there are a lot of uncertainties in this matchup and for once, this does not mean an automatic Shapovalov fade. I’m taking a shot at the more talented player, who’s trying to get some match practice in before the start of the first major of the year.
Suggested Bets:
1u on Denis Shapovalov ML at 2.20 (+120) with bet36
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.