Jake’s ATP Brisbane International Quarters Selection

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Absolutely zero prizes for this one, but I’m betting into the shorts in quarter four at Brisbane.

A few days ago, our good friend Ace floated the idea of a Dimitrov outright bet at Queensland, and I turned my nose up at it.

While I still don’t trust the Bulgarian to go the whole way, I actually have him shorter than market to reach the semi finals.

This is due to the devastating form he showed towards the back-end of last season as Dimi somewhat wound back the clock, winning 10 of his last 13 matches and taking some extremely significant scalps.

Hubert Hurkacz, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev – any of those names ring a bell?

They’re the lads Dimitrov knocked off last season on indoor hard courts, and all signs point towards him being fit and healthy at Brisbane this week.

New seasons can always bring on different challenges, especially when players start to approach that 35-year-old mark (Grigor will be 33 in May), but it really does look like he’s here to win the whole thing.

This bet doesn’t require him to lift the trophy, but we do need him to win two matches.

He’ll play Daniel Altmaier on Thursday and I have him very close to a 90% chance in this contest. I spoke up against the German in the lead-up to his match against Tu, and while he scraped past the Aussie, I don’t think he’ll be able to upend Dimitrov, or even go close to it. I have Grigor a true $1.15 shot.

In the second round he’ll face either Tomas Machac or Jordan Thompson, both men can present their challenges, but I want to revert back to the form around Dimitrov and the level he’s playing at lately – he should be far too good for either.

Obviously, Machac is favoured in that clash, but I’ve got Dimitrov an average of $1.30 in that potential contest.

Using my workings, I have Dimitrov a genuine 2/3 shot, which doesn’t make for a monstrous bet, but the implied edge is a tick over 5%, and that’s good enough for me.

Suggested Bet
1.5 units Grigor Dimitrov to WIN quarter 4 @ $1.57 at Bet365

You can keep across Jake’s previews at @AceSportPreview, as well as providing some audio content as well!

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.