Knowing when to buy low on a player can be a bettor’s greatest weapon, and I’m hoping to implement that strategy effectively in round one of the Brisbane International.
Hometown hero Jason Kubler is set to return to the tour after a shoulder injury forced an end to his 2023 campaign as he retired against Arnaldi at the US Open and wasn’t seen again.
While some may consider this a deterrent, I’m buying into the Australian’s work ethic and motivation ahead of one of the bigger moments in his career.
This sounds like overkill, but it’s really not. Kubler has spent a lot of his time on the Challenger circuit and has never played a main draw match in his hometown, losing in a qualifying contest back in 2010.
Due to this, I expect Kubler to have this week circled on his calendar whereas Karatsev might not be approaching it the same way.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not suggesting the Russian isn’t motivated, but I doubt it will be as big a moment for him as it is for Kubler.
Additionally, Karatsev finished 2023 with a run to the finals at Tokyo and I believe this has greatly inflated his price.
People who follow the tour week in, week out know Karatsev can play top 10 tennis on his best days but can look like a futures player on his worst day.
It’s this volatility, paired with a really short market quota, that has me looking to back the Australian.
There’s always a chance Karatsev turns up and hits winner after winner, making things very difficult for the Aussie, but in trying conditions with the crowd against him, I’m hoping a few errors creep into his game.
Suggested Bet
1 unit Jason Kubler to WIN @ $2.75 with Bet365.
You can keep across his previews at @AceSportPreview, as well as providing some audio content as well!
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.