Jake’s Challenger Canberra Prediction – Gabriel Diallo vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo

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One of my strategies heading into 2024 was to steer clear of favourites as much as I could.

This seems like a silly blanket approach, but I’ve personally performed much better on underdogs over time, and I wanted to lean into that betting style.

However, there’s always instances where favourites appeal, and you can’t be scared to pull the trigger in those scenarios.

I happen to have one of those scenarios for Monday morning’s contest at the nation’s capital.

Gabriel Diallo enters this season as one of the tour’s most exciting and prospective talents as the Canadian skyscraper showed his hard court proficiency last year, amassing a 32-21 record on his way to a pair of Challenger titles.

His already-impressive resume, in combination with perceived improvement in the next 12-18 months, has me pricing up the Canadian a little shorter than the market.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo is a clay court specialist, and has shown almost zero ability to perform at a high level outside of South America.

He finished last season on a five match losing streak and I wonder where his confidence levels are at ahead of a first-up contest on an unfriendly surface.

I will mention that the Argentine flashed at Winston Salem last year, surprisingly reaching a hard court quarter final before being demolished by Borna Coric, and I honestly believe that’s his ceiling on the surface – at least for the foreseeable future.

While the Canadian may not be able to break easily (largely due to his power-first style and physical frame), I don’t expect Cerundolo to be able to make many inroads on Monday morning.

Suggested Bet
1.5 units Gabriel Diallo to WIN @ $1.44 with Bet365, 1.41 with BetKings or Pinnacle.

You can keep across his previews at @AceSportPreview, as well as providing some audio content as well!

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.