Preview: Okay, I’ll bite again.
Not sure we should be seeing near identical odds for Jelena Ostapenko in this matchup again compared to the other week on the indoor hardcourt.
That match the other day week was closer than the scoreboard suggested, and the form from Ostapenko since then, and her play in tight moments against the likes of Kvitova, Halep and Swiatek has been incredibly impressive. To be a threat against Kontaveit in these conditions you need to win a solid percentage of the backhand exchanges, and Ostapenko’s ability to take the backhand early in exchanges and redirect pace will be important.
Whilst the recent run of Kontaveit has been impressive, I don’t think her form this week has fully stacked up to the indoor form. Kontaveit has gone 18/23 on break point saves across her wins against Mertens, Konjuh and Jabeur, and has lacked the consistency that we have seen from her on indoors. Whilst Ostapenko can go a little wayward on serve, she will be comforted by the ability for Konjuh and Mertens to have found their way into Kontaveit service games.
Happy to back Ostapenko here north of $2.50 for 1.5 units.
1.5 units Ostapenko to defeat Kontaveit at $2.56 (+156) at Topsport
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Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.