Just a small play here, however I have this match closer to coin-flip odds than books do currently.
Daniel Altmaier has had a reasonably charmed run to the final in terms of players below his level, or opposition such as Cerundolo that lacked the weapons necessary to be a genuine threat in key moments. Without a player with weapons down the other end of the court, it gives Altmaier the ability to dictate and be aggressive off both wings. When you look through the recent form of Altmaier, his losses have come against players who are more successful behind their first serve. If you can serve big, and target the one-handed backhand in particular on the first ball, opportunities can open up. Whilst Cerundolo didn’t have the power to be a threat yesterday, Nicolas Jarry certainly has the first serve and power to dictate in this match-up.
If Altmaier were a little more consistent across his performances, I could understand his price being around that $1.60 mark. I just haven’t seen it enough from him, leading to Jarry presenting as value here.
After his ban from the tour last year, Jarry has had to do things the hard way most of the way through his comeback. After an extended break from the game, it was always going to take the Chilean a while to find consistency and rhythm in his overall game. He looks to have rounded his way into a decent patch of form in the last 6-8 weeks, notching a few impressive victories, especially across the course of this week. Wins over Klein, Ajdukovic and Lenz, and a strong start against RCB, are all positive signs for Jarry, and if he can remain aggressive on the first serve and not go into his shell, I give him a great chance of causing the upset, and certainly a value price.
1.5 units Jarry to defeat Altmaier at $2.48 at Topsport
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