Although the longer term clay form of both players leaves a lot to be desired, I do feel Mirza Basic is a little on the short side in this match-up today.
Julian Lenz has been able to make his way through to the quarter finals on the back two very impressive victories as an underdog this week. After coming from a set down against Mochizuki, he defeated Roman Safiullin as a $3.25 underdog. There are a couple of reasons that made this win a little more impressive than the scoreline suggests. First of all, Lenz gave up a *4-1 lead in the first set, losing it 5-7. Instead of falling away like many underdogs would in this situation, Lenz responded by taking the second set 6-4, before dominating the decider 6-2, not facing a break point whilst winning 50% of return points. What added to the impressive nature of the result was the fact Lenz was only able to put 48% of first serves into play, compared to 75% from Safiullin (and Lenz able to earn 17 break point opportunities). Whilst the lead in form is up and down, these results against the grain of stats and momentum suggest a step in the right direction.
Basic isn’t the strongest player on clay, which leads me to question how short he is today. The first round saw Basic get a little lucky, with Pablo Andjuar not winning another game from 7-5 5-3 up, fading out and pulling out of Winston Salem next week as well. He got through round 2 relatively comfortably over Tristan Lamasine, winning as a favourite in straight sets. He has shown some improved results on the clay this year compared to pre-pandemic, however not enough to justify a price below $1.30.
Just a 1 unit selection here, however Lenz looks to be value here at $3.75 in my opinion.
1 unit Lenz to defeat Basic at $3.75 at Topsport
2 ways to support Ace Previews Pty Ltd:
2. Sign up to PUBLC for free:
It is free and will support the ongoing work of Ace Previews
You will notice the preview takes you to a page via a new search engine called PUBLC, who have approached us regarding uploading my content to their search engine. The more people that sign up to a free account and continue to read our work, the more accessible we will be able to make our content moving forward.
Creating an account takes 30 seconds, however it will allow your support of our work to be ongoing. Please ensure you are signed in when clicking through to my articles. Your support is greatly appreciated.
For more information on PUBLC, click here.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss. If you are looking to support the work of this site, please sign up to PUBLC and view our previews via your free account.