The game total here looks a touch low, with both players coming into this match in reasonable form.
The over 21.5 games here looks to be the best option. While I am not comfortable in pulling the trigger on Koepfer to win at the moneyline, my decisions rested with the over 21.5 games or the +1.5 set handicap. Were this handicap at 22 to 22.5 I would have gone with the set handicap, however I prefer the scenarios where this goes over 21.5 games in 2 sets than Carreno-Busta losing here as a heavy favourite in under 21.5 games. After a small lapse against Bagnis in round 1, Koepfer came roaring back to life in round 2 in what was a dominant win over Max Purcell. He wore down and frustrated the Australian, who at one point celebrated the simple fact that Koepfer had finally committed an unforced error. Carreno-Busta has looked solid without being spectacular on his return to the hardcourt, with a straight set win over a fading Sandgren and a come-from-behind win over Cilic.
Both should enjoy the conditions, and based on the early rounds in the conditions here, Koepfer should be able to find opportunities to break serve, even if he feels the pressure himself. Just the 1 unit selection here.
1 unit PCB/Koepfer total games over 21.5 at $1.83 at Bet365 ($1.81-$1.84 at all books)