The temperature is back up a little higher today, and against some quirky opponents, these prices for some of the biggest names in tennis look to be a little too short for my liking.
Bets are as follows:
0.75 units on Fognini to defeat Medvedev at $7.80 at Betfair minus commission – This isn’t the peak Medevedev we saw in the latter part of 2020 and the early stages of 2021, and I don’t think there has been a large enough correction to these odds. Whilst Medvedev looked very strong in the early stages of his round 1 match with Alexander Bublik, his serve numbers dropped in the second set. He dropped his first service game, saved multiple break points in another, was taken to deuce in another, and needed to save a set point in the tiebreak after leading 4-0. Whilst Fognini is one of the less reliable players on tour, at odds north of $7 it is hard to pass up making a play in the heat today.
0.5 units Davidovich-Fokina to defeat Djokovic at $22 at Betfair minus commission – quirky, athletic types are the main threat to Novak over best of 3 sets in these type of conditions. The staking doesn’t go above 0.5 units as I fear ADF will go into his shell here instead of attempting to be aggressive. Happy to live and die by the double faults that may come from the Spaniard’s racquet at this price.
I will also place another 0.25 units of Fognini to defeat Medvedev at the $7.80, with the intention of rolling that into ADF to defeat Djokovic if the Italian is successful at whatever odds I tweet at the conclusion of that first match (if Fognini can pull off the upset).
1.5 units total outlay here, so a small outlay for some larger odds. A little bit different, but these odds look too big for best of 3 tennis in these conditions.