If James Duckworth is going to take the next step, which I believe he can, he needs to start winning matches like this one relatively comfortably.
The two big advantages here for James Duckworth are that the match is being played on hardcourt, and in the heat of the day. I cannot find a hardcourt performance from Lukas Klein over the course of the last couple of years (outside of perhaps Ruusuvuori).
With conditions in Tokyo reminiscent of the Australian Open in terms of heat (Daniil Medvedev remarked the conditions yesterday were very tough), this should be right in the wheelhouse of Duckworth. Whilst neither have played hardcourt tennis over the last couple of months, I think the form of Duckworth on grass and his less preferred clay will translate reasonably well here, and given I was expecting this handicap to sit in the -4/-4.5 game position for books, I will take the -3 games for 1.5 units.
1.5 units Duckworth -3 games vs Klein at $1.83 at Topsport