Dan Evans and Seb Korda find themselves in a very friendly section of the draw. Who will be able to take advantage?
I have Evans showing up as slight value here in the conditions, although I would rather have certainty that the roof is open for this match. What Evans will have is 99% of the crowd at his back, and if the atmosphere of previous days is any indication it will all help the Brit. The appeal in taking Evans here is not only the form on grass, but also variety in his game that adds to his chances today.
Whilst Korda has looked good in his early rounds, the consistency of shot coming from the other end of the court has worked to his advantage. It allowed him to find rhythm and range off both wings. Whilst there wasn’t a lot of pressure on Korda in round 2 against Hoang in terms of the match being in danger, I saw a couple of worrying signs from Korda when he was in control against Alex De Minaur that would concern me were they to pop up again today. He was visibly frustrated regularly, including when he was a couple of points away from victory. He should have won in straight sets but once up in the third set tiebreak, he went right into his shell and gave up control. He was up a break early in the fourth set and gave two breaks back, with De Minaur framing a volley down break point as a reprieve. They may be little things, but in the heat of the moment today against a firey opponent with the crowd at their back, it does raise some questions.
The variety and crowd are against Korda today, as good as he has been. If Evans can use his backhand slice effectively it will become the most important shot for the match. I wish I would wait to see if the tape just below the knee on the patellar is present for Korda, however a 1am start is not one I will be up for this evening. I will back Evans here at the moneyline for 1.5 units.
1.5 units Evans to defeat Korda at $1.90 at Bet365
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