Whilst he has had a couple of scares in rounds 1 and 2, in the slightly cooler, more overcast conditions today, this looks to be a value spot to make a play on Cristian Garin.
Both these players have come within a point of exiting the tournament, with Garin saving match points against McDonald and Giron saving match points against Dimitrov. Whilst the fact he found himself in such situations is a little concerning, he has been just as impressive in overcoming the deficits, with the Chilean finishing with 71 winners and 59 unforced errors in his 4-6 4-6 7-6 6-3 8-6 victory, saving 14/18 break point chances. It was a funny ending to the match, with his Chilean cheersquad kicked out before the end of the match due to the curfew in Paris. McDonald is putting together an impressive season in his return from injury, however he certainly exceeded my expectations in round 2 against Garin. The win has ended up looking better than the odds suggested.
When you cast an eye over the clay season of Giron, and the form around the players he has beaten along the journey, it doesn’t appear overly strong. If Grigor Dimitrov’s body held up for just a little longer, Giron is out of the tournament 3-6 4-6 1-6 and we are talking about Giron on the grass in a couple of days. Dimitrov retired hurt, and Giron was fortunate enough to face Guido Pella in round 2, who has struggled with both form and fitness over the entirety of the clay season. If the weather forecast holds and the conditions are a little damper/slower, this favours Garin far more than it does Giron.
There is a mental game at play here too for Garin. He knows he can beat both Opelka/Medvedev if he is in good shape physically, and needs to put together a strong performance today to put himself in position.
Happy to back in Garin at the -6.5 game handicap for 1.5 units.
Suggested Bet
1.5 units Garin -6.5 games vs Giron at $2.08 at Unibet
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