There seems to be a bit of love around for Reilly Opelka in this match, however the conditions today just don’t seem to be as suited towards the American as the first two rounds.
Perhaps it is the won over Medvedev on indoor hardcourt late in 2020 that has added to the appeal on Reilly, however Medvedev was going through a horrible stretch of form, and psychologically tormented himself whilst struggling to a 2/9 break point conversion rate in the match as well. The Russian has all the pressure off himself for the fortnight by saying he doesn’t like playing on the clay, and has looked solid in rounds 1 and 2 in his wins over Bublik and Paul on his way to the third round.
Opelka has looked solid, however against both Martin and Munar he has had complete control of most rallies and point outcomes, something we won’t see to the same extent today. With a little of the sting taken out of the court in the cloudier conditions as well, I think this leaves Opelka unfavoured.
The -4.5 game handicap for Medvedev looks to be incredibly solid here for the Russian in the conditions, and I am happy to back him in for 1.5 units. Don’t read too much into the lead-up form, as he was finding his fitness and endurance on his return from his bout of COVID. This is worth a play.
1.5 units Medvedev -4.5 games vs Opelka at $1.92 at Unibet
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