Just the smaller one unit selection here, with Sabalenka coming up against a savvy veteran player in conditions that look to be a little damper and more overcast than what we have seen across the course of the tournament to date.
The obvious offputing statistic when looking at these two players is the recent head to head, where Sabalenka won in straight sets. In next to perfect conditions at the higher altitude in Madrid, Sabalenka was always going to have the advantage, and I feel the scoreboard flattered her a touch that day.
A couple more weeks removed from her injury issues and Pavlyuchenkova is looking a far more confident player. She has put together two straight set wins this week against McHale and Tomljanovic, and and as you can see from her overall results of late, tends to perform better when there is pace on the ball from the other end instead of needing to always generate it herself.
Just a 1 unit selection, nothing too drastic, however with my rating of Pavlyuchenkova at $3.75, there is value in her price here in a grand slam, especially with the more overcast conditions.
1 unit Pavlyuchenkova to defeat Sabalenka at $4.80 at Topsport
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