I discussed this match on my stream on Twitter today, and have settled with making a play on the game handicap for Federico Coria.
There isn’t anything that is remotely appealing to taking Lopez in a 5 set match on clay at this stage of his career, especially with his preferred grass tournaments just around the corner next week. He has lacked consistency on the clay across the course of the season, and unless he finds an absurd first serve percentage, I have him pegged as incredibly vulnerable today.
Coria is starting to show himself as a more consistent player at ATP level since the tour resumed late last year. Whilst he has struggled at times against the top echelon of clay players (see Novak Djokovic last week), he is just the type of match-up that is going to present a lot of problems for Lopez Consistent, lower error rate, and able to make decent decisions under pressure when their opponent is net-rushing.
Happy to back in Coria at the -3.5 game handicap here for a unit.
1 unit Coria -3.5 games vs Lopez at $2.01 at Topsport
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