This looks to be a very appealing price, and one I am happy to take a crack at on the moneyline.
The difference between the best and worst tennis from Aleksandra Krunic is night and day, however that is why there is an appeal in the price on her to cause the upset today. In qualifying, we saw both the worst of Krunic (down a set and break to Samsonova, and down a break in the third set, then down 0-5 to Ruse), but we have also seen the best of Krunic (won 5 games in a row to take set 2 against Samsonova, won 6 games in a row to take set 3 against Samsonova, and won 7 games in a row to take the first set against Ruse). She looks to have finally found her footing on the tour again with a doubles title last week and making her way through qualifying, and has nothing to lose in her appearance today as a massive underdog to Coco Gauff.
Krunic has been the big underdog before and got the result at grand slam level. She beat Petra Kvitova as a 21 year old at the US Open in 2014 in one of the upsets of the tournament, and holds a previous career high of 39. She can be erratic, but she has exceptional court coverage skills, and is able to pull the trigger up the line and be aggressive when asked (or sometimes a little too early in rally).
The court coverage ability is one of the key appeals here in Krunic, given Coco isn’t the biggest striker of the ball on the WTA tour. Krunic will retrieve more balls than any player Gauff has faced in recent weeks. Gauff is coming off a title the other week in Parma, so is obviously playing well, however I feel her odds in this style of match-up, when she still has a lot of improvement to make in her game on clay, is just far too short for my liking.
Coco should win, but Krunic shouldn’t be anywhere near $7. There is still a vulnerability in the Gauff serve, especially looking at the second serve points won during her winning streak. Her best win has probably come against Sabalenka, however Sabalenka was on the quick back-up from a title the previous week, and her win over Barty came as a result of a retirement.
I have enough question marks in the price to place a 2.5 unit selection on Krunic at the moneyline. This isn’t a style of bet for everyone, however I am aggressive when I see what I perceive to be value (even if they lose 0 and 0).
Other options would be the + game/set handicaps, as well as total games over.
2.5 units Krunic to defeat Gauff at $7 (+600) at Unibet
Please note: There is some $8 available on the exchange, $7.44 at Pinnacle and $7.25 at Topsport, so plenty of better odds around than what will be recorded.
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