Short and sharp here before I jump into a meeting.
The -6.5 game handicap here looks to be great value on the young Italian, as he looks to start off on the right foot again in Roland Garros after his 1/4 showing last year.
Whilst this place can bring out some of the best tennis in PHH, I have too many concerns around how dynamic Sinner is to consider taking the +6.5. I think it is going to take one of Herbert’s betting first serve percentages to give himself a chance of forcing the cover, and that is something I am happy to take on today.
Part of the problem for Herbert is the amount of margin that Sinner is able to play with on both wings. This is a problem because unlike most players where there is a glaring weakness to target if Herbert is coming into the net, that isn’t as much the case with Sinner. He has the game to be able to get a racquet on the PHH serve, and has the high IQ smarts to make good decisions regarding placement and direction off both wings, as well as hit winners from almost anywhere on the court.
Whilst the hold-break stats for both on clay this year are similar, the opposition quality of Sinner needs to be respected here. I will back in Sinner to cover the -6.5 game handicap for 1.5 units. If you cannot access a 6.5 game handicap, I would take the 7 for 1 unit.
1.5 units Sinner -6.5 games vs Herbert at $1.80 at Bet365 ($1.81 at Pinnacle)
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