I touched on this in the episode of Eat Sleep Tennis this week. Whilst I completely understand the appeal in Musetti given his style and the fact that he has almost every shot in the book to use to his advantage, I do still find him a touch vulnerable at this stage of his career.
His best tennis is exceptional, however the ability to lose concentration, or lose focus in tight situations is still frequently evident with Musetti. He lost 3 games in a row after disputing a line call in his match with Korda, which ultimately caused him to not cover the game handicap that day. He also brought out a poor underarm serve at *6-5 40/AD against Bedene, a bail-out option as opposed to digging in and grinding in that situation.
A very capable, more experienced opponent is across the net today in Gianluca Mager, who has established his name as a capable ATP player on clay. The +2.5 game headstart looks to be a nice price at $2, and I will back that in for 1 unit. Mager may not win, but I haven’t seen enough consistency start-to-finish in matches from Musetti to back him in at the minus game in this match-up.
Suggested Bet
1 unit Mager +2.5 games vs Musetti at $2 (+100) at Bet365/Unibet