Debrief
There was a decent period of that first set yesterday where I thought Zarina Diyas serving at above 80% of first serves in play was going to be my undoing again. Luckily, the range on the first ball went missing with Diyas serving at *5-6 40/0, with Garcia winning 7-5 6-2 and covering the -4.5 games.
The results spreadsheet has been updated, and can be found here.
WTA Roland Garros Qualifying
Krunic vs Samsonova
Some books have Krunic north of $4 (+300) in this one, which looks a little too much for my liking.
Here we have a player who is relatively easy to measure, based on a decent amount of tennis since the resumption last year, against a player who has scarcely played. After a career high ranking of 39 in June 2018, it has not been smooth sailing for Aleksandra Krunic. She can be erratic, but she is also able to cover the court incredibly well and can be aggressive behind her first serve. She lost in three sets to Jani last week in Belgrade, however showed signs of promise in that match, then backed it up by winning the doubles title with Stojanovic to give her confidence a much-needed shot in the arm.
Samsonova hasn’t quite backed up the form we saw from her early in 2020. She is much more of a known commodity. Outside of some wins in Palermo in 2019 and 2020, and looking at the hold/break stats on clay in particularly for Samsonova, I am not sure the short price on Samsonova is entirely justified.
Happy to take the 1 unit selection here on Krunic, who I have rated shorter than current odds at all books.
Suggested Bet
1 unit Krunic to defeat Samsonova at $3.80 at Topsport (and Pinnacle)