This is my favourite play for the day.
I think there has been a small, short term overreaction to Taro Daniel reaching the semi final in Belgrade last week. It is a fantastic result for him and I am thrilled that he is now on the brink of the Top 100, however in the conditions in Madrid, against another big striker of the ball in Hanfmann, I fear he may struggle in patches today.
This match is almost entirely on the racquet of Hanfmann. The German was a game away from the semi final in Cagliari the other week, before struggling to close out against Sonego and Popyrin in consecutive weeks. His confidence has risen off the back of his claycourt form since the tour resumed in the back end of 2020, and he has all the tools to be a difficult task for Daniel today.
Whilst Daniel did push the eventual champion Berrettini to three sets in their semi final last week, he lost the first and third sets whilst winning the combined total of 1 game. He is able to lock in and grind down opponents on the clay, however given the way Hanfmann is playing on the surface, I genuinely think he covers here in a 2 set win and even possibly a three set win. Hanfmann isn’t afraid to pull the trigger off both wings down the line, and has the game to really spread Daniel on the defensive side.
There is some -3.5 games around at bookmakers for around the $1.80 mark, however I don’t foresee that lasting. I love that game line, and will be recording at the -4 games available for 3 units.
3 units Hanfmann -4 games vs Daniel at $1.92 at Topsport