After 24 further hours of pondering, I am happy to pull the trigger here on Marco Cecchinato.
Whilst there can be some more wild fluctuations in terms of potential performance when it comes to the Italian, I don’t think I can overlook his form over the medium term when compared to Koepfer. I had made the decision late last year to start avoiding the Italian in some particular spots, notably in tournament qualifying for smaller tournaments. After two very solid showings in qualifying here in Monte Carlo, I am more confident in the level we are likely to see from the Italian.
Run your eyes over the players that have defeated him on clay since the start of Roland Garros Qualifying last year, and you get a list with the names:
– A Zverev
– F Delbonis (3 sets)
– L Djere
– F Bagnis
– D Schwartzman
– L Djere (this time 3 sets)
– F Bagnis (3 sets)
– Y Hanfmann
It makes for reasonable viewing when you consider the claycourt prowess amongst that group, coupled with their form at the time of their meetings. Overall, it does marry up as far stronger form than what Koepfer has displayed on the clay since the tour resumed late last year. When you look at a couple of his better performances last year, such as those against Bautista Agut and Djokovic, you quickly notice the significant overperformance from Koepfer in terms of break point conversion as well as break point saves. I think what we saw in the South American swing earlier this year is more reflective of Koepfer on clay. This week he has got the better of Zapata Miralles and Londero, however Cecchinato on recent clay form is a step up, especially at this Masters 1000 Level.
After a long process coming to terms with this match, I am happy to make a play here on Cecchinato.
2 units Cecchinato to defeat Koepfer at $2.00 (+100) at Unibet and Bet365