Two plays on offer to kick off today. They can be found below.
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ATP Oeiras 2 Challenger – Cachin vs Moroni
The opening price was way off the mark her for Moroni, with the Italian moving his way into warm favourite over the last 12 hours. The odds have eased slightly in that time, to the point where I think there is value here in a 1.5 unit selection on the Italian. He has had the tougher draw on the way to the quarter final (I highly rate the straight set win over Kotov), and I don’t believe the recent ITF level form of Cachin marries up here to justify odds resembling a coin flip.
1.5 units Moroni to defeat Cachin at $1.90 at Topsport/Bet365
ATP Cagliari – Musetti vs Djere
Had you told me 1 week, 12 weeks or 52 weeks ago that I would be getting $2 for Djere in this match-up in these conditions in Cagliari, I’d have jumped at them at each time point. I completely understand the appeal of Musetti, however with a number of other capable claycourters in this draw, I was slightly opposed to him being the overall tournament favourite. At his age on the ATP tour there is still going to be elements on inconsistency, and we saw that in a big way yesterday against Dan Evans. After losing the first set 1-6, did Evans provide evidence of the blueprint to defeat the Italian? He attacked the return of serve and stepped well inside the baseline, rushing Musetti for time and rattling the teenager. Evans couldn’t finish off his good work up triple match point in a third set tiebreak, however Djere has the consistency and game to cause more than enough trouble for Musetti in windy, heavier conditions.
2.5 units Djere to defeat Musetti at $2.02 at Unibet
Other ATP matches that caught my eye:
I was very tempted by Munar -3.5 games vs Ivashka, however seeing a number of bigger strikers of the ball this week put together impressive patches for dominant set scores, it has been a little offputting. On the flipside, I don’t think Ivashka has the plan B to be able to turn things around if things were to go pear-shaped early against Munar, so I don’t like the + game handicap or the underdog ML either.
The same can be said for Ramos against Gombos. It feels as though Ramos should get the win, but given the form of Gombos this week he may go on a run at some point. Perhaps there is some value in Ramos 2-1 set betting.
Back later with WTA selections.