Has a little too much been read into the win of Danielle Collins over the current world number 1 Ash Barty? Absolutely.
As much as she wants to have suggested otherwise over the course of the last fortnight, there is clearly an injury that needs to be taken into consideration when you are considering the form of Ash Barty since the second round of the Australian Open. Barty has pulled out of the next couple of tennis tournaments on of the back of her loss yesterday, stating she will return to the tour in Miami. What is on the impressive side for Barty was the fact she was able to lead by a break in both sets before losing to Collins, who hasn’t been able to produce the tennis we (well I) know she is capable of producing at her best.
Iga Swiatek has continued to produce consistent tennis since the start of the Australian Open. The loss to Alexandrova in the week before the Australian Open is forgivable, and she hasn’t done a lot wrong since. I think that loss in a way distracts from the thought that Swiatek is able to handle heavy pace in these conditions, but there has been nothing in the last couple of weeks that makes me think Collins should be a major threat to Swiatek.
The heavy use of topspin from Swiatek will make life a little more difficult for Collins today. On form, I have Swiatek sub-$1.50 and I remarked at the start of the week that I was keen on her chances this week against Barty from an outright standpoint, and this head to head price looks to be fantastic value in this match-up. I will back Swiatek here for 4 units.
Over the course of the tour since the resumption post-COVID, all roads lead to Swiatek here.
4 units Swiatek to defeat Collins at $1.70 at Topsport