Only a 1.5 unit selection here given these two will be on court in the heat of the day and Hsieh was exceptional in identical conditions against Bianca Andreescu earlier in the tournament.
Any time a player openly admits they have trouble with a particular opponent is worth getting involved in at a large price in my opinion. These two played on three occasions in 2019 on hardcourt, with Osaka winning two out of three. Her wins included one coming from 5-7 2-4* 40/0 down, and another involved saving 4 break points in her opening service game of the third set, and 12/16 break points for the match. Hsieh got the win on the other occasion in Miami, a sign of what can happen when break point conversion is in her favour.
I don’t want to get too heavily involved in opposing Osaka, however I think this is a genuine test for her. She wins here and she is likely to defeat either of Halep/Williams in the semi final on recent form. Facing Hsieh in the heat of the day in an empty stadium will be an isolating experience, and with Hsieh’s variety in play, I don’t think her head to head price should be north of $6.
1.5 units Hsieh to defeat Osaka at $7.80 (+680) at Betfair minus commission