After wins over Giannessi, Wu, Hanfmann and Basilashvili, Mario Vilella Martinez has a significant step up in terms of opposition quality today in Jordan Thompson.
Martinez is moreso known for his clay performances, notably in the Challenger tour. What he does possess though is quite an aggressive first serve that can bail him out a little more than many players who prefer to play on the clay. He got a little lucky with his early rounds, with Hanfmann a player you wouldn’t mind facing at ATP level on hardcourt in current form and Nikolaz Basilashvili continuing to struggle.
Whilst they haven’t been his best performances of late, Thompson has been able to find a way to dig deep over the last couple of days, with three set wins over Mager and Herbert. I would put the inconsistency down to a lack of tournament level play recently, however it is comforting to see him find a way out of precarious situations in both matches.
If Mager was given a +3.5 game handicap against Thompson to kick off this tournament, I am a little surprised to see Martinez with the same tomorrow. Thompson is proven at this level, and barring a low first serve percentage should be able to dictate this match. Keep an eye on the weather though, as if the rain does come and this one is moved indoor, it will favour Thompson even more. I am happy to take Thompson at the game handicap for 1 unit.
1 unit Thompson -3.5 games vs Martinez at $1.88 (-113) at Unibet