ATP Great Ocean Road Trophy Preview: Caruso vs Kecmanovic

Posted on

Whilst Kecmanovic let me down in Antalya last month, I do think he represents value here again today against Salvatore Caruso.

Kecmanovic looked quite solid in his first match in Melbourne, defeating Kwon in straight sets 6-3 6-4 in 1hr42mins. He was able to win 44% of points on first serve return and 61% on the 2nd serve, great numbers for Kecmanovic against a player of the level of Kwon. Whilst he did have a fade out in his match against Travaglia in Antalya, this was a strong effort from start to finish.

Caruso has managed to find a nice little run into the third round here, with wins over Andreas Seppi and Tennys Sandgren. Given Sandgren’s troubles this week, including a couple of outbursts and general disinterest coming out of quarantine, it doesn’t bode well for Caruso that he had a chance to serve out this match in straight sets at 6-4 5-4, before Sandgren broke and forced a third set. Break point saving and conversion was key, with Caruso saving 7/9 and converting 5/6.

On hardcourt, in the conditions on offer in Melbourne today, this looks to be a favourable match-up for Kecmanovic, even if it needs to be moved indoors. He should be able to regularly find his way into the Italian’s service games on recent hardcourt stats from both, and I am happy to take him at the -3.5 game handicap for 1 unit.

Suggested Bet

1 unit Kecmanovic -3.5 games vs Caruso at $1.90 at Bet365/Topsport