Tsitsipas vs Bedene (Approx 09:30pm AEST)
I just cannot quite trust Tsitsipas at this price on best of 5 on clay, especially against a player who:
– has looked very solid across his first two rounds.
– defeated Tsitsipas on indoor hardcourt earlier in the year.
This is a trickier match-up for Tsitsipas than first meets the eye. Bedene is comfortable taking the ball early, as well as changing the direction of rallies quite comfortably. That was part of what got Bedene the win in Rotterdam, which came in the middle of a very impressive streak for Tsitsipas on the indoors. Bedene did a fantastic job to save five break points through his first four service games, before winning the last 11 points of the first set to claim it 7-5, break early in set 2, and run away with the match confidently.
Whilst the conditions are so different tonight, that will serve as a confidence boost for Bedene. Confidence is key, and Tsitsipas hasn’t looked at full confidence since his dramatic loss to Borna Coric at the US Open. Even last week in Hamburg he had a chance to serve for the title, before dropping serve twice in a row to allow Rublev to claim to title.
I think the style and consistency of Bedene will be a trickier look for Tsitsipas. Personally, I would have Bedene around $4.50 in this one, however I am only comfortable placing half a unit on this one. Whilst Tsitsipas should win, his odds are far too short given the inconsistency we have seen from him over the last couple of weeks, including giving Munar a 2-set head start in round 1. Happy to make my lowest stake here.
0.5 units Bedene to defeat Tsitsipas at $7.50 at Topsport
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