Sabalenka vs Kasatkina (Approx 08:30pm AEST)
It looks to be a bit of a tricky day today, with a number of underdogs appealing at value prices. One that appeals at such a price is Daria Kasatkina.
Even when her form and confidence was at its lowest point last year, Kasatkina still found a way to beat Aryna Sabalenka on hardcourt in Beijing last year. Fast forward a year, and with Kasatkina undefeated over the last week in completed matches (lost via retirement to Azarenka), the Russian will be confident coming into this match.
I am a big fan of opposing Sabalenka with counterpunching types, and we have another spot here today where it is a suitable approach. I stayed out of Kasatkina’s first round match as I was unsure regarding her fitness. She looked good to me in a 6-2 6-1 win over Harmony Tan, and will have taken a lot of confidence from her tennis over the last couple of weeks on clay.
Sabalenka is coming off a 3 set loss to Elina Svitolina (another solid counterpunching player) in Strasbourg last week, and was dominant in a 6-3 6-1 victory over Jessica Pegula, who does not seem to love the clay. Interestingly, Sabalenka only won 54% of points on her first serve, however her second serve and return game saved the day.
Like we saw in Beijing last year, I think Kasatkina has the right mix of counterpunching, court coverage and craft to be able to significantly challenge Sabalenka. I will keep this play to one unit, however I am very keen on the upset here.
1 unit Kasatkina to defeat Sabalenka at $2.51 at Topsport
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