Bautista-Agut vs Koepfer (Approx 02:30am AEST)
The total here looks a touch too high, and I think it may be in part to do with the lapse we saw from Novak Djokovic against Koepfer last week.
You may recall on the live show last week that a lot of the discussion around the Djokovic/Koepfer results were a significant difference in terms of break point conversion rates on clay. Koepfer converted 4/4, which is near unheard of against Djokovic, whilst Novak was only able to convert 6/21 on his way to a 6-3 4-6 6-3 win.
When you circle back around Koepfer’s win yesterday, Nishioka was only able to convert 3/19 opportunities, which is well below average. Whilst these results have allow Koepfer to win or be competitive in a number of matches, it has opened up a value spot here on the total against Roberto Bautista-Agut.
The total of 21.5 here looks to be a touch high. Even with a lapse against Basilashvili, a 2-time Hamburg champ, in round 1, Bautista-Agut was still able to get the job done 6-4 6-3. I have RBA as a very very heavy favourite in this one, and the only thing putting me off the game handicap of -4.5 games is that total in a best of 3 set match can depend on who serves first having a greater impact than most handicaps.
Instead, I will settle for the under 21.5 games. I have RBA winning this comfortably, unless Koepfer can serve a very high first serve percentage or maintain his absurd BP save percentage of late. I am happy to bet against that happening.
2.5 units total games under 21.5 at $1.94 at Topsport
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