Struff vs Coria (Approx 07:30pm AEST)
First look at this one had me leaning towards the total here being a touch high. Further research has allowed me to confirm that.
Whilst it is easy to look at the win from Coria over Dzumhur yesterday, it can be easy to forget that Jan-Lennard Struff is an underrated performer on clay. Since the start of 2019, Struff has wins on clay over Shapovalov, Goffin, Tsitsipas, Kyrgios, Dimitrov and Cilic, whilst pushing Rafael Nadal to 5-7 5-7 in the quarter final of the event in Barcelona. His clay form sneaks under the radar, and I get the feeling that his style is going to be well suited to the conditions in Rome against a player such as Coria.
Whilst Coria was able to consistently find his way into the service games of Dzumhur, I don’t hold as much weight in some instances to final round qualifying performances. I am happy to back up my claim yesterday that Federico Coria is still more on the Challenger side of things, with M1000 a big step up. He won a round at the US Open, with Jason Jung cramping up 6-2 6-4 4-0, and whilst impressive the only key result from the last 12 months that stands out was his run to the QF in Rio De Janeiro. If he could have shown a sustained run of results I would consider him a bigger threat today, however the total of 21.5 games here looks to be on the high side if I am honest.
I am happy to take the under 21.5 games for 1.5 units today. Struff should be able to find his way into enough return games for a comfortable straight sets
1.5 units Struff/Coria total games under 21.5 at $1.94 at Unibet
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