Bouchard vs Tig (Approx midnight AEST)
Whilst the comeback of Eugenie Bouchard continues to impress, I do get the feeling that bookmakers are slightly overrating her performances on a fairly consistent basis on her return.
If you have been keeping an eye on my Twitter feed over the course of the last week, you will have noticed that I have remarked a number of times that Tig at her game handicap has just missed the cut of being a play for the day. The win over Martincova, which was filled with quite a bit of controversy, was in my opinion the win of the week. Martincova put 80% of first serves into play, and Tig was able to win 57% of all return points, breaking serve 7 times on her way to a 6-3 6-3 victory.
I would say Bouchard has ended up with a softer route to the final, with wins over Tomova, Kuznetsova, Kovinic and Badosa Gibert on her way to the final. Tig is a step up in terms of opposition, in a style that is a little trickier for Bouchard. Tig is going to force Bouchard to play a more consistent brand of tennis than what we have seen over the course of the week. Tig has found a way into opposition service games consistently in each round so far, and if she can produce a similar performance today against Bouchard I anticipate the good run continuing.
I had Tig priced at $1.70, so the $2 available for her to win here looks to be good value. I am happy to take Tig to win for 1.5 units.
1.5 units Tig to defeat Bouchard at $2 at Bet365
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