Humbert vs Berrettini (Approx 04:30am AEST)
I have been pretty consistent in terms of my thoughts around Berrettini and where his deficiency lies at present. Against the left-handed Ugo Humbert, that deficiency could be the difference between a win and leaving the US Open bubble.
The left-handed Humbert will have a great opportunity to target the Berrettini backhand, both on key moments when serving on the Ad side, as well as in generally rallying from his forehand side. The Italian survived an early scare in round 1 against Go Soeda, running away with the match after claiming the first set in a tiebreak. Whilst the Italian was dominant on serve, he only earned one extra break point across the entirety of the match in comparison to Soeda, which is a little disappointing given the mismatch that was expected on paper.
Ugo Humbert was clinical in his 6-3 6-4 6-3 victory over Yuichi Sugita. Whilst his break point conversion was not fantastic, his ability to sustain pressure in services games was impressive. If he can do the same here, he will present as a value price here to cause an upset. Humbert played incredibly well on the outdoor hardcourts through the start of the season (see Auckland title). Personally, I think more value lies in the Humbert +4.5 games, and I will take that for 2 units.
2 units Humbert +4.5 games vs Berrettini at $1.89 at Topsport ($1.90 at Bet365)
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