Krajinovic vs Ymer (Approx 06:30am AEST)
A little announcement off the top -> I am very comfortable in this decision to make this play at this price, even if he loses 1-6 1-6 1-6. The last play like this ended with a couple of abusive replies that suggest too much may have been bet on a selection. I write what I think is value, I don’t bet for you!
This match stood out to me from the moment the draw was released. Not often do you get so much time to look at a play and consolidate your thoughts, however I am comfortable after many hours of research to give this play the green light.
I think the indoor hardcourt 6-1 6-1 win from Krajinovic in Montpellier earlier this year is part of the reason for the one-sided odds, combined with the performance of Krajinovic last week against Thiem and Fucsovics, and it is patching over one of the biggest deficiencies in the game of Krajinovic: best of 5 sets.
Across his career, Krajinovic holds a 6-14 record at grand slam level. On hardcourt, it is 4-8, with his only Top 90 win of his career against Marco Cecchinato at the Australian Open in 2019 from 2 sets to 0 down. His other wins? Evgeny Donskoy, Alejandro Gonzalez and Quentin Halys, who he defeated 7-5 in the fifth in Melbourne earlier this year. The longer format is not his friend, and he just has never been able to find his consistency over the best of 5 format to make a push at a grand slam. Granted he has improved his overall form this year, are we still reading too much into a couple of wins in the week before a grand slam?
When you look at the outdoor hardcourt form of Mikael Ymer over the course of 2020, it doesn’t make for the worst reading. He lost to Bedene in 3 sets in Doha, then travelled to Auckland where he qualified for the main draw, defeating Dancevic, McDonald and Tiafoe before falling to Hubert Hurckacz. He then headed to Melbourne, knocking off Yasutaka Uchuyama in straight sets before falling to Karen Khachanov 2-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-7(8) in a 4hr34min battle that was one of the best matches of the first week. On the indoor circuit, Ymer was able to snatch wins over Sinner and Gasquet as well, so there are some glimmers of hope there in terms of overall hardcourt form.
Ymer didn’t look the worst last week as well in the conditions, losing to big serving Lloyd Harris 5-7 5-7. Whilst it won’t be warm when there two players take the court, the humidity will start to build as the match progresses. I am happy to back in the Ymer fitness level, as he has been able to train comfortably in Sweden during the quarantine period given their differing restrictions for his country. Between that and his effort and ability to go the distance against Khachanov in Melbourne gives me an indication of his ability to extend this match out and play for as long as necessary.
Given Krajinovic’s form coming into the match, Ymer will need to be careful early in this match. If he can manage to finish set 2 either ahead or level with Krajinovic, I will like the chances of the Swede to pressure Krajinovic at very short odds.
I cannot have Krajinovic so short, and I am happy to make a value play on Ymer to win outright here for 2.5 units. Other options include the total games over, or Ymer + games as having a higher win probability, however at slightly less value prices in my opinion.
2.5 units Ymer to defeat Krajinovic at $5.30 at Unibet (note: $5.50 also available at Bet365)
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