Yastremska vs Williams (Approx 07:00am AEST)
This one has upset alert written all over it in my opinion.
I am so glad to see that Venus Williams was able to take stock of her form over the COVID tour suspension, deciding to make changes to her game after decades at the top level. Part of my concern in backing Williams over the last couple of years has been the concern around her service action and forehand action breaking down at times. She has managed to make changes to both of them over the break, and looked almost a new player in Lexington. After dominating Azarenka in round 1, Venus pushed sister Serena to the brink in the following round, displaying a more consistent brand of tennis than we have seen from her in recent years.
I was quite disappointed with the effort of Dayana Yastremska on the clay a couple of weeks ago. She had her quarter final against Giorgi under control, with a couple of match points earned in the second set. Fast forward an hour and it was the Italian progressing and Yastremska left to wonder what might have been.
With more confidence in her serve and forehand comes more value at the price today. Yastremska is far too short for my liking based on what we have seen over the course of 2020. Her best week was in Adelaide, however I do drop my value on wins in the week before a grand slam. Venus needs wins to find her way back into the Top 100, and this looks to be a perfect opportunity to get the ball rolling. I think she will use the confidence gained in Lexington to her advantage, and she looks to be a fantastic price to cause the upset today. I would have Williams closer to $2.15, so there is plenty of value in the price.
Suggested Bet
2.5 units Williams to defeat Yastremska at $2.74 at Topsport
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